The innumerate will struggle, but every reader will encounter gems and jolts in this expert analysis of probability.
A definitely-not-dumbed-down exploration of predicting outcomes, whether of an election, card game, medical test, or weather front.
Stewart (Emeritus, Mathematics/Univ. of Warwick; Significant Figures: The Lives and Work of Great Mathematicians, 2017), the prolific popular author of books on his specialty, points out that “an aspect of the human condition that arguably singles out our species from most other animals is time-binding. We’re conscious that there will be a future, and we plan our current behavior in the context of our expectations of that future.” Predicting odds is straightforward (though not always easy), and predicting the future turns out to be surprisingly possible, but both require calculations—in other words, mathematics. Popular writers on difficult topics involving math and science often assure readers that they will limit the equations, but Stewart has no patience with this tradition, so readers who do not remember high school algebra will have a difficult time. The author interweaves his account with a lively history that, few readers will be surprised to learn, began in the Renaissance, largely with gamblers who wrote long monographs that teased out the unnerving peculiarities of dice and cards. Stewart states bluntly that “the human intuition for probability is hopeless.” Evolution has trained us to make quick decisions, which are essential in the struggle for existence but a bad idea when faced with even simple abstractions such as estimating odds. He illustrates with plenty of squirm-inducing paradoxes. Example: A couple has two children; at least one is a girl. What is the chance that they have two girls? Almost everyone answers 1 in 2, but it’s 1 in 3. Now suppose that the elder child is a girl. What is the chance that they have two girls? This time 1 in 2 is correct.
The innumerate will struggle, but every reader will encounter gems and jolts in this expert analysis of probability.Pub Date: Sept. 3, 2019
ISBN: 978-1-5416-9947-2
Page Count: 304
Publisher: Basic Books
Review Posted Online: May 25, 2019
Kirkus Reviews Issue: June 15, 2019
Stricter than, say, Bergen Evans or W3 ("disinterested" means impartial — period), Strunk is in the last analysis...
Privately published by Strunk of Cornell in 1918 and revised by his student E. B. White in 1959, that "little book" is back again with more White updatings.
Stricter than, say, Bergen Evans or W3 ("disinterested" means impartial — period), Strunk is in the last analysis (whoops — "A bankrupt expression") a unique guide (which means "without like or equal").Pub Date: May 15, 1972
ISBN: 0205632645
Page Count: 105
Publisher: Macmillan
Review Posted Online: Oct. 28, 2011
Kirkus Reviews Issue: May 1, 1972
An autobiography as toxic and addictive as any drug its author has ever ingested.
The legendary booze-addled metal rocker turned reality-TV star comes clean in his tell-all autobiography.
Although brought up in the bleak British factory town of Aston, John “Ozzy” Osbourne’s tragicomic rags-to-riches tale is somehow quintessentially American. It’s an epic dream/nightmare that takes him from Winson Green prison in 1966 to a presidential dinner with George W. Bush in 2004. Tracing his adult life from petty thief and slaughterhouse worker to rock star, Osbourne’s first-person slang-and-expletive-driven style comes off like he’s casually relating his story while knocking back pints at the pub. “What you read here,” he writes, “is what dribbled out of the jelly I call my brain when I asked it for my life story.” During the late 1960s his transformation from inept shoplifter to notorious Black Sabbath frontman was unlikely enough. In fact, the band got its first paying gigs by waiting outside concert venues hoping the regularly scheduled act wouldn’t show. After a few years, Osbourne and his bandmates were touring America and becoming millionaires from their riff-heavy doom music. As expected, with success came personal excess and inevitable alienation from the other members of the group. But as a solo performer, Osbourne’s predilection for guns, drink, drugs, near-death experiences, cruelty to animals and relieving himself in public soon became the stuff of legend. His most infamous exploits—biting the head off a bat and accidentally urinating on the Alamo—are addressed, but they seem tame compared to other dark moments of his checkered past: nearly killing his wife Sharon during an alcohol-induced blackout, waking up after a bender in the middle of a busy highway, burning down his backyard, etc. Osbourne is confessional to a fault, jeopardizing his demonic-rocker reputation with glib remarks about his love for Paul McCartney and Robin Williams. The most distinguishing feature of the book is the staggering chapter-by-chapter accumulation of drunken mishaps, bodily dysfunctions and drug-induced mayhem over a 40-plus-year career—a résumé of anti-social atrocities comparable to any of rock ’n’ roll’s most reckless outlaws.
An autobiography as toxic and addictive as any drug its author has ever ingested.Pub Date: Jan. 25, 2010
ISBN: 978-0-446-56989-7
Page Count: 320
Publisher: Grand Central Publishing
Review Posted Online: May 19, 2010
Kirkus Reviews Issue: Dec. 1, 2009
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