THE BIG ONE

How to survive a plague.

One of the great mysteries of Covid-19 is how the virus sickened and killed millions of humans around the world, but some who were exposed and likely infected experienced no symptoms at all. With the danger of this stealth spread in mind, the authors guide readers through a thought experiment: The emergence of and global response to a new, as-yet-unseen pandemic of catastrophic proportions. The killer is first identified in a refugee camp in Kenya, with a baby becoming the earliest recorded death. Invisible, or asymptomatic, spread makes this deadly bug particularly dangerous. Osterholm, an internationally recognized epidemiologist, and journalist Olshaker weave a tale that at times borders on horror, interspersing the gripping story of the fictional virus with historical accounts of global pandemics and the experience of preparation and mitigation. But the story never veers too far into darkness without returning practical advice gleaned from real lessons, our current predicament, and clarity about how the world must plan for what lies ahead. When we truly experience “The Big One”—and the Covid-19 pandemic was not it—solid response according to evidence will be critical to human survival. Misinformation, politics, and human nature all stand in the way, as we’ve seen with Covid-19. The authors write, “Nature will have the upper hand, and the success of our response will be directly tied to the extent of our preparation.”

A clear-eyed examination of pandemic fault lines and what must be done to fix them.